Economic policy uncertainty, governance institutions and economic performance in Africa: are there regional differences?

In recent years, the global economy has witnessed several uncertainty-inducing events. However, empirical evidence in Africa on the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on economic activities remains scanty. Besides, the moderating effect of governance institutions on the uncertainty-economic performance relationship in Africa and the likelihood of regional differences in the response of economic activities to EPU on the continent are yet to be investigated. To address these gaps, we applied system GMM and quantile regressions on a panel of forty-seven African countries from 2010 to 2019. We find that while global EPU and EPUs from China, USA and Canada exert considerable influence on economic performance in Africa, the effects of domestic EPU and EPUs from Europe, UK, Japan, and Russia were negligible, suggesting that African economies are resilient to these sources of uncertainty shocks. We also find that governance institutions in Africa are not significantly moderating the uncertainty-economic performance relationship. However, our results highlighted regional differences in the response of economic activities to uncertainty, such that when compared to East and West Africa, economic performance in Central, North and Southern Africa is generally more resilient to global EPU and EPUs from China, USA, Europe and UK. We highlighted the policy implications of these findings.

Living in a Democracy as a Fallen People: A REVIEW ESSAY

Rather, it would be more correct to say that Donald Trump found a ready audience for nationalism and postliberal thinking in the United States and rode a seemingly unlikely wave into the White House by semi-miraculously navigating the twists and turns of the Electoral College. COVID-19, of course, has proved to be a breeding ground of predominantly right-wing conspiracy theories, including regarding vaccines even though they were the result of a Trump-led program. [...]he made an argument that Vice President Mike Pence would be able to refuse to certify the election results. Tocqueville approached democracy as a young aristocrat from a family that had suffered in the French Revolution.

A Study on Information Disorders on Social Networks during the Chilean Social Outbreak and COVID-19 Pandemic

Information disorders on social media can have a significant impact on citizens' participation in democratic processes. To better understand the spread of false and inaccurate information online, this research analyzed data from Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. The data were collected and verified by professional fact-checkers in Chile between October 2019 and October 2021, a period marked by political and health crises. The study found that false information spreads faster and reaches more users than true information on Twitter and Facebook. Instagram, on the other hand, seemed to be less affected by this phenomenon. False information was also more likely to be shared by users with lower reading comprehension skills. True information, on the other hand, tended to be less verbose and generate less interest among audiences. This research provides valuable insights into the characteristics of misinformation and how it spreads online. By recognizing the patterns of how false information diffuses and how users interact with it, we can identify the circumstances in which false and inaccurate messages are prone to becoming widespread. This knowledge can help us to develop strategies to counter the spread of misinformation and protect the integrity of democratic processes.

Is Democracy Lost?

President Kais Saied's de facto dissolution of parliament in July 2021, abandonment of the constitution, and targeting of the opposition are clear signs that Tunisia is no longer a democracy and has returned to the authoritarian playbook of Arab leaders past and present. I see three main reasons for this abrupt end to Tunisia's decade-old democracy: 1) the failure to accompany political reform with socioeconomic gains for citizens;2) the subsequent rise of populism;and 3) the mistakes of the Islamic party. To move forward in Tunisia and the Arab world more broadly, prodemocratic forces must link freedom, development, and social justice.

Reactions of Thailand's Stock Market to the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

The U.S. presidential election is one of the most important events in the world, to which the stock markets of other countries react. The 2020 U.S. presidential election was unique due to delayed vote counts, the incumbent president's false election-fraud claims, and the violent riots at the U.S. Capitol Building. In this study, the reactions of Thailand's stock market are examined using the event-conditioning method for event-study analyses. The sample period ranges from August 6, 2019, to January 28, 2021. The period overlaps the period of the COVID-19 pandemic and Thailand's youth protest, thus constituting parameter-instability and confounding-event problems. This study relies on the international capital asset pricing model to mitigate the parameter-instability problem, as it constructs event-dummy control variables to resolve the confounding-event problem. The data comprises daily log returns of Morgan Stanley Global Investable Market Indices portfolios for Thailand and the world, in excess of the 1-month U.S. treasury bill rate. The reactions are found to be significant for the election, the final election results, and the presidential inauguration;they are non-significant for the Capitol riots and the incumbent president's false claims. For the same events, there is dissimilarity between the reactions of the Thai and U.S. markets.

Presidential Policies' Effects on Oil and Gas Price and Productions Within the United States from 1977-2021

Amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the contentious U.S. 2020 presidential election featured candidates with quite different stances on regulating the oil and gas industry, leaving many to question the longevity of fossil fuel use. However, little research explores the relationship between presidential policies and the oil market. In this paper, extensive research into presidential energy policies and their effects on domestic oil prices and production dating back to 1977 helps us identify whether we can predict the industry's future under Joe Biden's administration. The paper's results suggest the domestic oil industry is more dependent on external foreign events - with presidential policies offering almost negligible effects on prices and production.

BIDEN WON, BUT SLEEP LOST IN THE 2020 US ELECTION

Introduction The 2020 US Presidential Election captivated the US public resulting in record turnout. In the months preceding the elections COVID-19, racial injustice and the economic downturn had a daily impact on the lives of voters. In this research, we analyze the sleep behavior of Americans in the lead up to the Presidential Elections. We examine specifically the nights of the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Debates and Election Night. Methods We examined sleep data from the PSG-validated SleepScore Mobile Application, which uses a non-contact sonar-based method to objectively capture sleep-related metrics and self-reported lifestyle data. The data set included 123,723 nights (5,967 users residing in the US, aged 18-85, mean age: 46.6 +/- 16.7 years, 52.3% female). Data from September 1st until November 3rd were included. This covered the nights of the Presidential Debates (Tuesday 09/29/2020 and Thursday 10/22/2020) and the Vice-Presidential Debate (Wednesday 10/07/2020). Election night was Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Self-reported stress level (0-24 scale) and alcohol consumption (0-9 drinks) were measured using digital slider scales. Mixed Effect Modelling was used for analysis. Results The night of the 1st Presidential debate saw a change in sleep-related behavior with users going to bed 9.5 minutes later, as compared to a regular Tuesday Night. This resulted in a decrease in both TST (11.5 mins, p<0.001) and TIB (11.8 mins, p<0.001). Interestingly, neither the the 2nd Presidential Debate, nor the Vice Presidential Debate resulted in significant differences in sleep behavior. On election night users went to bed 14.5 (p<0.001) min later on average, as compared to a normal Tuesday Night. This resulted in a decrease in both TIB (24.3 mins, p<0.001) and TST (19.2 mins, p<0.001). Self-report data showed a 13.3% (p<0.001) increase in stress level on election night and 34.4% (p<0.001) increase alcohol consumption Importantly, election night was two nights after the end of Daylight Savings Time (DST), Sunday, November 1st. Conclusion This analysis shows the 2020 US Presidential election negatively impacted US population sleep. The impact was most pronounced on election night, but also observed following the first Presidential debate. The effect of DST on these findings is unknown but surmised to be meaningful. Support (if any):

THE US‑MEXICAN BORDER AND CONTEMPORARY AMERICAN IMMIGRATION POLICY

There have been several periods in American history that are referred to as turbulent times. They were characterized by a wide range of changes that happened to respond to issues that brought anxiety, threat, discontent, or trouble. Donald Trump's presidency and the Covid-19 pandemic significantly influenced American immigration policy and the lives of immigrants. The present article pays special attention to the Mexican-American border. This area plays a crucial role in migration studies focusing on the Americas for at least two reasons: international relations between Mexico (and the Latin American region) and the United States, and homeland security issues related to irregular and regular migrant flows. This study aims to determine what changes have been implemented in border policy, investigate why they occurred, and finally, discuss their results. The article analyzes the most challenging issues characteristic of the situation of unaccompanied minor migrants, the concept of Trump's wall or the 'remain in Mexico' program. The US-Mexican border studies have played a crucial role in research dedicated to American immigration policy since its inception. Today, it is also an area of concern and special attention is paid to this region due to the dynamics of processes taking place at the border. The work presented here discusses and highlights the most turbulent issues that echoed not only in the United States but also worldwide.

Evidence-Based Policymaking during the COVID-19 Crisis: Regulatory Impact Assessments and the Polish COVID-19 Restrictions

The COVID-19 pandemic transformed our understanding of the state's role during a public health crisis and introduced an array of unprecedented policy tools: ever-stricter travel restrictions, lockdowns and closures of whole branches of the economy. Evidence-based policymaking seems to be the gold standard of such high-stakes policy interventions. This article presents an empirical investigation into the regulatory impact assessments accompanying sixty-four executive acts (regulations) introducing anti-pandemic restrictions in Poland over the first year of the pandemic. To this end, the study utilises the so-called scorecard methodology, which is popular in regulatory impact assessment research. This methodology highlights the shallowness of these documents and the accompanying processes, with an absence not only of a sound evidence base behind specific anti-pandemic measures or estimates of their economic impacts, but even of the comparative data on restrictions introduced in other European Union/Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Overall, the collected data support the hypothesis that the ad hoc pandemic management process crowded out the law-making process through tools such as regulatory impact assessments and consultations. In other words, the genuine decision-making occurred elsewhere (with the exact process being largely invisible to public opinion and scholars) and drafting legal texts simply codified these decisions, with the law-making process becoming mere window-dressing.

Iran 2021: The year of transition

The election of Ebrahim Raisi as the new president of Iran in June has been the most significant development in Iran during 2021. It represented the end of an era -the reformist-pragmatist one- and the beginning of a new one controlled by the conservative establishment. This article analyses the domestic and international implications of such transition, including assessing Rouhani's performance and legacy. It also analyses the evolution of the Iranian economy, still marked by the sanctions and the Covid-19 pandemic. Besides, it describes and assesses the evolution of the nuclear negotiations transferred from the outgoing to the new administration.

India 2021: Politics amid the pandemic

The most important development of 2021 in India was a devastating second wave of COVID-19 infections that brought the country's healthcare system to its knees between April and June. While the management of the pandemic in a country like India represented an enormous challenge in itself, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government took a series of steps that failed to contain and most probably facilitated the spread of the virus. In particular, a combination of over-confidence, complacency and then outright political opportunism might have led to a huge increase in the number of infected people, which resulted in a very high death toll. The article will focus on the actions (and inactions) of the Modi government to explain the evolution of the pandemic during the first half of the year and then its economic impact.

Covid pandemic, politics and bank performance

Purpose>The paper aims to highlight differences in bank performance based on state politics during the onset of the Covid pandemic. The response to Covid pandemic created an unusual opportunity for an investigation of how politics impacts banking due to the initial response to the pandemic being heavily impacted by political affiliation states' governors and dominant parties in state legislatures. Previous research looked at impact of elections on the federal level (both executive and legislative branches) on bank risk and performance. The response to the Covid pandemic in 2020 allows for an investigation on how political influence on the state level impacted banks performance.Design/methodology/approach>The Covid pandemic was an unexpected storm that entered the United States with a vengeance in 2020, taking countless lives and ravaging the economic landscape. The response to the pandemic quickly took a political spin as republican governors showed greater reluctance to shutter business activity in hopes of slowing down the spread of the virus than their democratic counterparts. This paper examines the impact of the two Americas created along the lines of political influence as it impacted bank performance over four-quarters beginning with the fourth quarter of 2019. All US banks are split into groups based on the political affiliation of state governors and the dominant party in state legislatures to measure impact of politics on bank performance and risk.Findings>This research finds that banks operating in states with republican governors produced greater profits and exhibited higher liquidity levels. The same results held for banks in states where both the governorship and the legislature were controlled by republicans versus banks in states where both the governor and the legislature were democratic. Interestingly, the findings present a reversal when examining banks in states led by republican governors and democratic legislatures versus banks in states with democratic governors and republican legislatures. In those instances of mixed leadership, banks in states with democratic governors tend to show greater profits, greater liquidity while demonstrating lower asset quality.Originality/value>A paper published in Managerial Finance in 2018 discussed the impact of the parties in control of the White house and the legislative branch on bank performance and risk. There have been no studies, to the author's knowledge, that look at how states' political leadership (gubernatorial and legislative) impact on bank performance. Because the response to the Covid pandemic became a politically polarized issue, the onset of the crisis allowed for measurement of how different responses by republican and democratic state leadership impacted bank performance and risk.

Presidential Elections in the Republic of Poland in 2020

Purpose: The aim of this article is the analysis of normative aspect of Presidential Elections in the Republic of Poland in 2020, conducted under conditions of coronavirus epidemics SARS-CoV-2. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research analysis mainly focused on normative acts (also their projects), as well as official announcements of National Electoral Commission, which resulted in adopting the analytical method. Findings: Performed analyses allow to conclude that the trial to realize voting in Presidential Elections as of 10th May 2020 had been impossible in those legal and actual conditions. This state could have been anticipated already, a least the previous month. Practical implications: Performed analysis gives legitimacy to state that interfering in electoral action 's regulations during its duration is not only objectionable from the point of view of fundamental rules of democratic law-governed state, but also counterproductive. Implementation of changes into nationwide electoral action during its term only brings irreparable damage. In case of repetitive extraordinary situations, which result in electoral action 's fiasco, information policy ought to be performed in a transparent way on the basis of announcements of specialized (election oriented) administration organs. Originality/ value: Presidential Elections in 2020 were the first nationwide electoral action in the history of the Republic of Poland, during which legal and factual circumstances made voting in initially planned term impossible. At the same time, till the last day before elections called for 10th May 2020, public authority tried to perform elections through subsequent normative changes. However, it occurred to be impossible - which had been anticipated by National Electoral Commission a few days before. Conclusions and values which stem from the nationwide electoral fiasco, allow to manage risk more effectively in the times of unforeseeable circumstances, disturbing seriously social life.

Unconditional Support for Trump’s Resistance Prior to Election Day

Using survey data collected less than two weeks before the 2020 presidential election, we investigated why likely Trump voters would support Trump resisting the election results if he lost. We first used an experiment with randomized hypothetical popular-vote margins to test whether support for resistance was contingent on the results of the election. We also directly asked respondents who stated that they would support resistance to explain their reasoning in an open-ended response. In doing so, we gained insight into one of the most turbulent elections in American history and examined how support for resistance existed before the election due to both misinformation about voter fraud and hyperpartisanship that made Trump voters view the electoral process itself as illegitimate.

Biopower, racism, and yellow fever

Protection includes access to pharmacies and health-care services, information, resources, people, and goods that can shape one's life or lead to one's death. The 1793 yellow fever epidemic in Philadelphia was thought by some, including physician and signer of the US Declaration of Independence, Benjamin Rush, to originate from rotten coffee grounds left in the port. Long known as the “stranger's disease” due to misguided perceptions that only visitors and outsiders harboured yellow fever and brought it to New Orleans and other places, Olivarius takes a different approach in arguing that only the so-called acclimated were bestowed with vestiges of power in the form of local capital, networking opportunities, recognition from local credit houses and businesses, and status. While some public officials attempted to mitigate the potential impact of voting in the election by calling for increased access to mail-in ballots and more accessible and safer polling places, for instance, others hoped the impacts of COVID-19 might suppress “unwanted” voters from participating in the election.

Electing the Mayors in Romania's Big Cities in 2020: Voter Turnout, Legislative Changes, and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Local elections have been theorized by many scholars as lower rank or second-order national elections: they are less important, less relevant, and just not as interesting as national elections. In Romania, turnout in local elections was, until the mid-2000s, quite high, even if lower than in parliamentary elections. Since 2008, however, turnout in local elections has been consistently higher than in parliamentary elections. The electoral reform that started in 2011 had, over time, a negative influence on the electoral process in the local elections. In this paper, we argue that the transition from the election of mayors using a majority electoral system in two rounds to a single round has contributed to the decline of citizens' interest in local elections, exerting a detrimental influence on the quality of political representation in general. Despite the arguments used by many of the supporters of this electoral reform, that electing the mayors in just one round will generate an increase in turnout because the competition will be fiercer, the effect was the opposite. The year 2020 marked a historic low in terms of turnout in local elections in Romania. Analyzing the official electoral data at county level and for each county capital, we will show that the health crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic had a minor influence on voting turnout. Instead, the specifics of the electoral law meant that, in the vast majority of county capitals, the turnout was significantly lower that the county average and the mayor was elected without reaching 50% of the votes (in many cases, the winning candidate failed to obtain more than 30% of the valid votes cast), which poses a major problem regarding the representativeness of elected mayors, as well as the stability and political balance within local political institutions.

PENGUKUHAN KUASA POLITIK GABUNGAN PARTI SARAWAK (GPS) TERHADAP GEOPOLITIK SARAWAK DALAM PILIHAN RAYA DUN SARAWAK 2021

Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) yang ditunjangi Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) yang terbentuk selepas Pilihan Raya Umum (PRU) 2018 ekoran kekalahan Barisan Nasional (BN) pada peringkat persekutuan merupakan parti penguasa di Negeri Sarawak sejak Pilihan Raya Umum Dewan Undangan Negeri (PRU DUN) Sarawak yang pertama lagi. Parti politik ini berpengalaman memerintah Sarawak dengan membentuk pemikiran politik pembangunan dalam kalangan pengundi di negeri ini. PRU DUN Sarawak 2021 diadakan berikutan pembubaran DUN Sarawak pada 3 November 2021 setelah tertangguh sejak tamat tempoh penggal lima tahun (sehingga 7 Jun 2016) iaitu 6 Jun 2021 akibat pengisytiharan darurat oleh Kerajaan Persekutuan di seluruh negara yang berpunca daripada penularan wabak pandemik COVID-19. PRU DUN ini dapat melihat pengaruh GPS dalam persada geopolitik Sarawak dalam keadaan negara dan negeri ini masih dalam keadaan penularan wabak pandemik COVID-19. Justeru adalah menjadi tujuan penulisan artikel ini untuk menganalisis pengukuhan kuasa politik GPS terhadap geopolitik Sarawak dalam PRU DUN Sarawak 2021. Berdasarkan analisis data keputusan PRU DUN Sarawak 2021, pemerhatian di lapangan dan analisis sumber sekunder, dapatan kajian menunjukkan bahawa pengukuhan sokongan pengundi kepada GPS disebabkan beberapa faktor iaitu pengalaman GPS memerintah Sarawak, kepimpinan GPS yang dikenali pengundi, manifesto pilihan raya GPS yang realistik, penerusan program pembangunan Sarawak, jentera pilihan raya GPS yang berpengalaman dan bersistematik, impak penularan wabak pandemik COVID-19, perpecahan undi parti pembangkang Sarawak dan penurunan peratusan pengundi bandar yang pro parti pembangkang. Oleh itu, pengukuhan politik GPS dalam geopolitik negeri Sarawak ini menunjukkan bahawa pentingnya pengalaman dalam memerintah serta mempunyai jentera parti yang tersusun bagi memenangi pilihan raya.Alternate :The Sarawak Party Coalition (GPS) backed by Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) which was formed after the 2018 General Election (GE) following the defeat of Barisan Nasional (BN) at the federal level is the ruling party in Sarawak since the first Sarawak State Legislative Assembly General Election. This political party has the experience of ruling Sarawak by shaping the political thinking of development among the voters in the state. The Sarawak State Legislative Assembly General Election 2021 was held following the dissolution of the Sarawak State Legislative Assembly on 3 November 2021 after being delayed since the end of the fiveyear term (until 7 June 2016) which is 6 June 2021 due to the declaration of emergency by the Federal Government nationwide due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This Sarawak State Legislative Assembly General Election can see the influence of GPS in the geopolitical stage of Sarawak in the country and the state is still in a state of COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Therefore, the purpose of writing this article is to analyze the strengthening of GPS political power over Sarawak geopolitics in Sarawak DUN 2021. Based on data analysis of Sarawak State Legislative Assembly General Election 2021 results, field observations and analysis of secondary sources, the findings show that the strengthening of voter support for GPS factors namely GPS experience of ruling Sarawak, GPS leadership known to voters, realistic GPS election manifesto, continuation of Sarawak development program, experienced and systematic GPS election machinery, impact of COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, Sarawak opposition party vote split and percentage drop urban voters who are pro -opposition parties. Therefore, the strengthening of GPS politics in the geopolitics of Sarawak shows the importance of experience in governing and having a well -organized party machinery to win elections.

A Seat at the Table: Minority Representation and County Governing Boards

This study focuses on minority representation on county governing boards to determine the extent of minority representation, and then to provide explanation for the exiting patterns in its representation. The dependent variable used in this paper is a count variable employing a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model. The results indicate that minority populations, counties located in the South, partisan elections, the size of county governing boards and urban counties have positive effects on increased minority representation, while at-large voting districts have a negative effect. Furthermore, it advances the needfor greater research on county governing boards, county governments in general and a new agenda for the future study of minority representation on local governing bodies.

Harassment of Health Officials: A Significant Threat to the Public's Health

Local and state public health officials, who before the pandemic mainly worked behind the scenes to protect the public's health, were quickly thrust into the spotlight alongside their governors, mayors, and county commissioners to explain public health mitigation efforts such as business and school closures, mandatory mask orders, and social distancing recommendations. Before COVID-19, state and territorial health officials faced opposition from members of the public for supporting efforts to ban youth vaping and the sale of flavored e-cigarettes, for failing to support (and in some states for supporting) the use of cannabis for medical or recreational use, for enforcing vaccination requirements for school entry, or for supporting taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages. A VIEW FROM THE FIELD As the executive director of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO), I have seen firsthand the stress, strain, and cognitive dissonance that results from the denigration and defamation of our public health leaders. By November 2021, almost every state legislature has seen the introduction of a bill to weaken or remove the emergency powers of governors and/or local or state health officials.11 Successful efforts to reduce the power of public health authorities are a Pyrrhic victory: knee-jerk reactions that incite one's political base but with potentially deadly consequences for all of us when health officials' hands are tied in new outbreaks.